Elon Musk just confirmed on Twitter that the Model Y will be getting the new 4680 battery cells, and also a structural battery pack as well. we’re going to discuss this and why this is so important to tesla’s future, and also we’re going to give some updates on the made china Model Y.
Elon Musk tweeted this out quote berlin will use 4680 cells with a structural battery pack and front and rear single piece castings. also, a new paint system. lots of new technology will happen in berlin which means significant production risk. Fremont and shanghai will transition in approximately two years when new tech is proven.
Based on what tesla has previously announced the first vehicle that will be manufactured at the berlin Gigafactory will be the model y. this is the one that Elon Musk has said previously will be the one to watch. so we know this tweet from Elon musk immediately refers to the model y, and it could refer to model 3 in the future. but at least for now, the Model Y should be the first vehicle to get this new technology.
As we’ve talked about in the past tesla already offers some of the best value when it comes to the technology you get in the vehicle. the amount of range you get for the cost and of course the driving experience of their vehicles, they’re already top of any electric vehicle manufacturer out there. but this new battery and manufacturing technology that we will first see at the berlin Gigafactory, and then at the other Gigafactories in a few years is going to propel them even more ahead of the competition. and other manufacturers are not going to be able to keep up. they’re already having trouble producing anything even close to the model 3 the model y the model s and model x. and they’re not going to be able to match test them when it comes to their battery tech and also manufacturing technologies.
Let’s break down this tweet from Elon musk, and talk about why it’s so important and how it will affect tesla’s future. first of all, Elon Musk revealed that the model y will be getting the new 4680 battery cells. as Elon musk revealed at battery day this new larger format cell is made possible by the design of the tablet which allows for proper cooling of this battery cell even though it’s larger. the form factor alone allows for up to five times more energy, around a 16 range increase, and also six times the power. but I believe the most important number is the cost per kilowatt-hour reduction simply by having this new cell.
As Elon musk mentioned at battery day this cell design alone makes up around 14 percent of the cost per kilowatt-hour reduction in their future battery tech. Elon Musk also mentioned that the model y will be getting the structural battery pack. this is also very significant. On battery day, tesla showed the difference between their current battery tech. how they have cells that go into modules that go into a battery pack that then goes into the structure of the car. then they showed their future battery tech with these larger 4680 cells integrated directly with no modules directly into the structure of the vehicle themselves.
So that the battery cells themselves become part of the vehicle structure. this allows for increased mass efficiency, and it of course increases the range of electric vehicles. because it greatly reduces the weight. when you combine this with the front and rear single piece castings that tesla will be bringing out for this model y as they showed it makes for a 10 mass reduction, and around 370 fewer parts.
So the reason this is such a big deal and why this matters so much is because of these big three improvements. first of all, it greatly increases the number of vehicles that tesla can create in a factory. when you compare this new production process of this model y to the current processes for model 3. model 3 is a great vehicle, but it has a lot of complexity when it comes to body engineering and of course the battery cells themselves. this new design will allow tesla to produce a lot more model threes and model wise in the future way more than they currently can. and it will allow them to meet their goals for the future.
The second reason why this is such a big deal is that it increases the efficiency of tesla’s vehicles. Tesla already has some of the most efficient vehicles on the road and this pushes them one step further ahead of the competition. the structural battery pack and the integration with all this greatly reduce the mass. because you’re not wasting the extra weight for the modules and of course the battery pack and then inserting that into the structure of the vehicle. the battery cells the battery pack itself is the structure of the vehicle.
And then the third big reason why this is such a big deal and really why I believe this is key is that it greatly reduces the cost of tesla’s vehicles. Elon Musk has been very vocal in the past that he believes tesla’s vehicles are too expensive and these new manufacturing techniques and these new manufacturing breakthroughs will allow for tesla’s vehicles to come down in price over the coming years. now it’s important to note that the cost of the vehicles coming out of this berlin Gigafactory. it’s going to take several years before I believe we see serious cost reductions. it’s not like once berlin Gigafactory opens up that tesla’s just going to slash the prices on the vehicle. that’s not how manufacturing works.
Elon musk in the past on Twitter the extreme difficulty of scaling production of new technology is not well understood. it’s one thousand percent to ten thousand percent harder than making a few prototypes. the machine that makes the machine is vastly harder than the machine itself. he also has said in the past creating the production system is more than a thousand percent harder than building one rocket. this is the truly hard thing so in that original tweet when Elon musk mentioned that there was significant production risk. this is what he’s referring to it’s very difficult with this new technology all this new manufacturing technology that tesla will be using in the model y coming out of berlin.
It’s going to take a while before this gets worked out and they work out all the kinks and they make the processes perfect. and so it’s going to be wild I believe before we see these serious cost reductions. maybe two to three years but once we see those cost reductions, Tesla will be able to roll this process out to Fremont, and also Giga texas, and also Giga shanghai. and at that point, they will start realizing the cost reductions of this new technology and will be able to start gradually reducing the cost of their vehicles.
Now let’s move over to some of the made in china model y news that we just learned about as well. according to this article, the mass production of the model y at Giga shanghai should begin sometime in December. reportedly the china made model y will also be delivered to the European markets starting in December of 20201 as well. so if you’re a European model y reservation holder this is good news for you because you might be able to get your model y sooner than you thought. you may not have to wait for Gigafactory berlin to create the model y before you can buy one.
As you know the current vehicles coming out of Gigafactory shanghai have been of very high quality and many articles like this one from Teslarati have pointed out that the manufacturing of the made in china model 3 has been very good. so this is all really good news for tesla’s immediate future, and also their long-term future with all these battery techs and structural improvements of manufacturing. Tesla is pushing further and further ahead of the competition and it’s also looking even better that they’ll meet their 500 000 delivery numbers for the fourth quarter of 2020.
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